Exploring the Relationship between Simulation Model Accuracy and Complexity. Journal of the Operational Research Society. Open Access.Are “Wrong” Models Useful? A Qualitative Study of Discrete Event Simulation Modeller Stories. Journal of Simulation. Open Access.
Conceptual Modelling for Simulation: Progress and Grand
Challenges. Journal of Simulation.
BSc and PhD in Management Science (Operational
Research) from Lancaster University
Fellow of the Operational Research Society
My career started in the management services group of a major UK footwear retailer. I have been working in the field of computer simulation since 1986, initially working as a simulation consultant with AT&T Istel (now Lanner Group) developers of the Witness simulation software. There I supported the use of simulation in companies throughout Europe and the rest of the world, developing and using models, supporting others in their modelling efforts and providing training in simulation software and methodology.
In 1992 I joined the academic staff at Aston Business School in Birmingham teaching in the related fields of operational research, operations management and information management, and researching in computer simulation and modelling. In 1998 I moved to Warwick Business School where I taught in the area of operational research and performed research in simulation and modelling, becoming Professor of Operational Research and Associate Dean Specialist Masters Programmes in 2005. In July 2011 I took up the position of Professor of Management Science at Loughborough University, School of Business and Economics; Associate Dean Research (2012-2015) and Dean (2015-2021). I started my role as Dean of Newcastle University Business School and Professor of Operational Research on 1 July 2022.
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a full list of publications.
The focus of my research is on the practice of simulation, looking at how people go about developing and using simulation models and investigating how the practice of simulation can be improved. As a result, my interests lie in the methodology and methods employed in simulation studies. The focus of my research is on the use of the discrete-event simulation approach largely for business applications, but I also work with system dynamics and agent-based modelling.
Nine key areas of interest are:
Simulation Practice: approaches to modelling, particularly in the business field. Three modes of practice have been identified: software engineering, process of social change and facilitation. Related publications. Book: Simulation: The Practice of Model Development and Use.
Video Lecture: Simple Models for a Complex World
Simulation Conceptual Modelling: conceptual modelling is the abstraction of a simulation model from a real world problem. Research is being carried out to develop this important field in simulation. Related publications. Book: Conceptual Modeling for Discrete-Event Simulation.
Conceptual Modelling Template
Simulation Output Analysis: analysis of the output from real simulation models. Methods developed/implemented for determining the warm-up period (using statistical process control), the run-length of a simulation and for detecting shifts in the mean of a steady-state simulation. Related publications. An EPSRC funded grant in collaboration with SIMUL8 Corporation investigated the potential for automating the analysis of simulation output. See details of the AutoSimOA project.
Facilitated Modelling with Simulation: rapid use of approximate simulations for learning about systems and improving them. An EPSRC funded project (SLIM) investigated how simulation with lean can be integrated in a health care context. The resulting methodology is known as SimLean (follow this link for free handbook on SimLean). A follow-on project, SIMTEGR8, used facilitated simulation to improve health and social care services. Related publications.
Comparison of Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics: comparing model building and model use in discrete-event simulation and system dynamics. Related publications.
Agent-Based Simulation: for modelling social networks, supply chains and service operations. Related publications.
Verification and Validation of Simulation Models: practices and procedures for determining the confidence that can be placed in a simulation model. Related publications.
The Quality of Operational Research Interventions: viewing quality as more than just the validity of the model, but the confidence that is placed in the overall project. Related publications.
Modelling Human Decision-Making and Interaction in Simulations: using artificial intelligence methods (rule based systems and neural networks) to represent human-decision makers in a simulation. Included in this is the use of a simulation as a gaming environment in which example decisions are built up for training the artificial intelligence systems. Collaborative research with Ford Motor Company and Lanner Group, funded by the EPSRC: Grant 1 (details); Grant 2 (details). Related publications.
Research on Analytics
The ORATER (Operational
Research and Analytics Training, Education & Research) project was a two year research study into the fit of Operational Research
in UK universities with the developing
field of analytics. The aim was to
identify the training, education and research needs for analytics. The project is joint funded by the Operational Research
Society and Loughborough University School of
Business and Economics.
The book Simulation: The Practice of Model Development and Use (Palgrave, 2014) provides a guide to performing simulation projects.
The book Conceptual Modeling for Discrete-Event Simulation (Taylor & Francis, 2010) provides a state-of-the-art review of the field.
Applications from students interested in pursuing a higher degree by research in simulation are welcome. This might be in the area of discrete-event simulation, system dynamics, agent-based modelling or a mixture of these approaches. Ideal candidates will have a background in business, mathematics/statistics, engineering or computing and have a keen interest in the successful application of simulation to real world problems. An emphasis on the practice of simulation is of particular interest.
Simulation Modelling: the development and use of simulation models for manufacturing and service applications. Experienced in the use of the Witness and Simul8 simulation packages.
Simulation Modelling Support: support to those developing their own simulation models. Advice on all aspects of a simulation modelling exercise - defining the model, data collection and analysis, model development, model validation and experimentation.
Simulation Training: one to three day seminars and training courses in performing simulation projects, covering all aspects of simulation methodology from defining the problem, through model development, data collection and analysis, model testing, experimentation and implementation.
Model Reviews: independent verification and validation of simulation models.
President of the Operational Research Society (2014-15)
Advisory Board and co-founder of the Operational Research Society Simulation Workshop: a biennial conference. See SW21 - March 2021 – for the latest conference.
Co-founder of the Journal of Simulation
Fellow of the Operational Research Society (FORS)
Member of the Council of the Chartered Association of Business Schools
Member of the Board for the Winter Simulation Conference
As a Christian I attend the local church in Ashbourne.
I enjoy sport of most kinds, but particularly long distance running. Although largely retired from competitive events, here are some previous records:
10km (6.2 miles): 40 mins 03 secs (I did do it a bit quicker 30 years ago!)
Marathon (26.2 miles): 3 hours 15 mins